COVID-19 deaths in Ontario’s 2nd wave to exceed 1st if contacts aren’t reduced, modelling suggests

Ontario reports 1,677 new coronavirus cases, 16 more deaths



There will be more coronavirus deaths from the second wave of the pandemic in Ontario than the first if there isn’t a “significant reduction” in contacts, provincial modelling released Tuesday suggests.The data shows that “mobility, and contacts between people have not decreased with the current restrictions.” While most Ontarians are trying to follow restrictions, cases will not decrease until more of the population does the same, officials said.The new U.K. coronavirus variant also poses serious concern for Ontario, as it’s believed to be 56 per cent more transmissible and could reduce the doubling time for cases by more than two-thirds, according to the data.
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Ontario reports 2,903 new coronavirus cases, along with 8 more cases of highly contagious U.K. variant

If the variant spreads in the community, doubling time for cases could drop to as little as 10 days in March, the modelling showed. Story continues below advertisement

On Tuesday, Health Minister Christine Elliott announced that Ontario has confirmed eight new known cases of the variant, bringing the total in the province to 14.Meanwhile, the modelling also showed troubling trends for both long-term care facilities and hospitals.Both cases and mortality have been increasing in recent weeks in long-term care. There have been 198 resident deaths and two staff deaths since Jan. 1. Forty per cent of all homes — 252 — have COVID-19 outbreaks and they are occurring in almost all public health units.

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New restrictions looming as Ontario’s COVID-19 crisis grows dire



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Forecasts show there will be more long-term care resident deaths in Ontario’s second wave than the first, when 1,815 residents died.

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Ontario reports 2,903 new coronavirus cases, along with 8 more cases of highly contagious U.K. variant

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In a worst-case scenario, since the start of the second wave, the modelling shows 2,639 long-term care residents will die by Feb. 14, up from 1,119 now. Story continues below advertisement

COVID-19 patients are expected to take up around 500 intensive care beds in the province by mid-January with possibly more than 1,000 beds being occupied by February in “more severe, but realistic scenarios,” officials said.The province is also forecast to see 100 deaths per day by the end of February if current restrictions continue.Dr. Yaffe: the data shows that the previous shutdown measures didn’t work. People just went from their lockdown zone to others.— Matthew Bingley (@mattybing) January 12, 2021Moreover, surveys showed 60 per cent of people have had at least one person from another household visit their homes in the last four weeks despite government pleas.Of those, 34 per cent said they didn’t observe COVID-19 restrictions, while 66 per cent said they did. Story continues below advertisement

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